Submission on behalf of the Faversham Society to Open Floor Hearing 3 - for Deadline 5  

The Need for CHSP in the context of Demand for Solar PV – Addendum

Short Summary

According to National Grid data on solar energy requirements CHSP is not needed. This need is already being met by the rapid growth of smaller-scale solar arrays, with 4.8 Gigawatts of solar projects planned for completion between 2019 and 2022 excluding Cleve Hill.

This far exceeds the National Grid’s 2019 Future Energy Scenario which predicts that the maximum additional demand for solar required between 2019 and 2022 is 3.0 Gigawatts.

1. Introduction

This paper updates our previous analysis submitted under the Need Submission for CHSP including more detailed information on National Grid 2019 Future Energy Scenarios (“NG FES”) and updated information on Solar PV projects currently in planning.

Crucially, the National Grid’s projections of need for solar PV through to 2022 have been revised down whilst the growth of small-scale solar PV projects in planning has accelerated, making it now impossible to justify any need for CHSP on the basis of national energy requirements.

2. Government policy

There are two key UK Government targets for delivering a pathway to zero carbon and maintaining global temperature increases at sustainable levels:

A target to operate the electricity system at zero carbon by 2025; and

The target from 80% reduction in greenhouse gases from 1990 levels by 2050 as set out in the Climate Change Act 2008, was updated in June 2019 to net zero emissions target

3. The National Grid Future Energy Scenarios

National Grid consider the above targets in developing their FES. They, of course, recognise the need for immediate action to address these important targets considering a whole system approach and using multiple technologies across heating, electricity and transport energy demands.

Crucially, two of the four pathways presented by NG FES achieve the 2050 decarbonisation target. These are:

• Community renewables; and
• Two degrees.

This is considering the whole system approach outlined by national grid who consider the overall requirement of the UK energy system to ensure the maintenance of security of supply including: imbalance and the lack of inertia which results from renewable energy; the cost of delivering this energy security; and the decarbonisation goals.

4. Updated analysis

Given the above, we have updated our detailed analysis presented previously for the 2019 FES electricity generating capacity projections presented by National Grid, using specifically their projections for solar PV capacity to be required in each year.

5. Updated Solar PV capacity in planning

6. Conclusion